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New details on how a Russian “Pantsir” shot down the AZAL plane – Aze.Media

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The investigation into the crash of an AZAL aircraft on the Baku–Grozny route has revealed new details about the tragedy, according to the Telegram channel VChK-OGPU. Findings indicate that two missiles fired from a Pantsir-S1 air defense system directly struck the aircraft. The primary cause of the incident is attributed to chaos and malfunctions in electronic warfare (EW) systems, which “blinded” both civilian aviation and the air defense systems themselves.

At the time of the tragedy, multiple air defense systems were stationed in Grozny, including two Pantsir units, an S-300 system recently deployed from Syria, and a Buk missile system. The missiles were fired by one of the Pantsir crews located in the Visaitovsky District (formerly Staropromyslovsky). This system had been deployed following drone attacks on the Akhmat special forces building. According to the investigation, the crew launched two missiles: the first at 08:13:30 and the second 10 seconds later. Both exploded in the air, with the first detonating at 08:13:50 and the second at 08:14:30. The second explosion is believed to have struck the aircraft.

Investigators interrogated all three members of the Pantsir crew—the commander, operator, and driver. The commander claimed that the target did not appear as a civilian aircraft on the radar screen. He stated that powerful EW systems were active, jamming not only civilian but also military equipment. This prevented the air defense system from correctly identifying the aircraft, which was classified as an unidentified target.

When asked why the target was not recognized as a passenger aircraft, the commander admitted that its altitude and speed could indeed indicate a civilian plane. However, he stressed that he acted on orders received from a commander in Rostov identified as Borisov.

The situation was further complicated by miscommunication between air defense crews. It was revealed that another Pantsir crew identified the target as a civilian aircraft and refrained from firing. However, due to the EW systems, they were unable to warn the second crew, which subsequently launched two missiles. The investigation has yet to determine who activated the EW systems that disrupted both civilian and military communications.

The Telegram channel VChK-OGPU reports that the military is attempting to promote a narrative that the missiles were fired at a drone but missed and self-destructed near the AZAL aircraft. Investigators, however, insist that debris and the nature of the damage indicate that the missiles deliberately targeted the aircraft.

Confirmation of this theory comes from revised event timings. New data shows that the strike on the aircraft occurred around 08:14, rather than the previously estimated 08:16.

This conclusion was reached after a detailed analysis of an audio recording of conversations between the dispatcher and the flight crew. In the transcript, a crucial moment was marked as “inaudible” (allegedly to omit a link between the missile explosions and the aircraft strike). However, the original audio clearly captures the phrase, “a bird hit me.” Two minutes later, the crew repeated the message more distinctly.

New data indicates that at 08:14, ground services recorded the aircraft 16 kilometers from the airport, still over the Naursky District.

Testimonies from the Pantsir crew commander revealed that they were not provided with a schedule of civilian flights. The commander contacted Rostov twice via stationary communication lines before launching the missiles.

According to the shift commander servicing the Pantsir, the target was “visually unavailable due to dense fog.” However, the commander of a second Pantsir system stationed at the airport observed the aircraft and, confirming it as a civilian flight, refrained from firing.

This fact emerged from background recordings in the control room. The recordings capture the second Pantsir commander informing the dispatcher via radio that the aircraft was in sight.

When investigators asked why the first commander did not contact the second system’s commander, he responded that stationary communication was “out of order” and mobile phones were “inoperative due to EW interference.”

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Syrian Rebels Capture Russian Pantsir System: Reports

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Insurgents in Syria appear to have captured an advanced Russian air-defense system, according to images widely circulating on social media, after rebel forces launched a surprise offensive last week in the north of the country that marked an end to a long-running stalemate.

Images appear to show Russian equipment, including a multiple rocket launcher and a Pantsir-S1 surface-to-air missile system, in the hands of rebel forces in the country's second-largest city, Aleppo.

Newsweek could not independently verify this, but the U.S.-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), said on Saturday that opposition forces "have likely captured valuable military equipment" that pro-regime fighters "abandoned amid disorderly withdrawals."

The Russian Defense Ministry has been contacted via email for comment.

On Wednesday, rebel forces swept into Aleppo and the Hama province, to the south of the city, in a surprise offensive that apparently met little resistance from forces controlled by Syrian President and Kremlin ally, Bashar al-Assad.

Forces loyal to the Syrian leader had pushed rebel militants, which include Turkish-backed fighters, from Aleppo and settlements in Hama back in 2016. The conflict, while not resolved, had lapsed into a relatively static conflict in recent years. More than 300,000 civilians were killed in the first 10 years of the conflict, the United Nations estimated in 2022.

Russia has supported the Assad regime since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011, formally entering the conflict in 2015 to prop up the Syrian leader. The U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies has described the Russian move into the conflict as providing "decisive air power to Syrian and Iranian-backed ground forces," and broadening Assad's grip on territory in the country.

Moscow is deeply embroiled in its grueling war effort in Ukraine, while Iran is preoccupied with Israel, against which it launched two direct missile and drone attacks earlier this year.

The Syrian armed forces, loyal to Assad, said on Saturday that rebels had "launched a large-scale attack" on multiple points in Aleppo and Idlib, saying "dozens" of pro-regime soldiers were killed.

The army pulled back to strengthen their defensive lines, the military said, and to "prepare for a counterattack" to the most significant challenge to the Syrian president's rule in several years.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a U.K-based monitoring organization, said on Friday that Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other factions had taken control of 20 "villages, towns, and positions in Idlib and Aleppo countryside." Idlib sits southwest of the city.

The ISW said on Saturday that opposition forces had seized Aleppo and "advanced toward Hama City" within three days of the start of the offensive. Rebels are thought to control the city's airport and major landmarks in Aleppo.

Syria's army said on Sunday it had pulled reinforcements to the northern Hama countryside, and that the "Syrian-Russian joint military aviation is intensifying its precise strikes" on the rebels' ammunition and weapons depots, headquarters and positions.

The SOHR said on Sunday that four civilians had been killed and tens of others injured in Russian airstrikes on Idlib. A total of 372 civilian and military personnel had been killed since Wednesday.

It also reported intensified armed clashes around northern Aleppo on Sunday and several Russian aircraft targeting rebel forces in the countryside around the city.

Assad, said on Saturday that Syria would "defend its stability and territorial integrity."

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Saudi Arabia Confirms Pantsir Introduction | Aviation Week Network

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Will Aliyev turn from Putin over AZAL plane crash?

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Relations between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Russian President Vladimir Putin have worsened following the Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) plane crash. However, this cooling is unlikely to be long-lasting, according to the material by RBC-Ukraine.

Completely ruining relations is not in the interest of either Azerbaijan or Russia. The current cooling of relations is unlikely to be long-lasting and will probably last at most a few months or half a year, according to the head of the Center for Applied Political Research Penta Volodymyr Fesenko.

An example of this can be the 2015 incident when a Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian Su-24 near the Syrian border. This triggered a full-blown crisis, with Moscow clashing with Ankara and even imposing sanctions. However, after a few months, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan apologized, and relations gradually normalized.

"Of course, there are still some contradictions between Putin and Erdoğan, but they have restored not just nominally friendly, but also partnership relations in many areas. I think the situation with Azerbaijan will be similar," he noted.

The episode with the AZAL plane crash and the "nonsensical versions" revealed the nature of Putin's regime.

"It is a distorted 'great power mentality,' an immoral way of behaving when Russia cannot admit its guilt, and does not want to act the way civilized countries do in such situations. Right now, Aliyev is offended and cannot ignore the dignity of his state, so he has to show a strong reaction. Relations with Putin are important to him, he does not intend to quarrel, but at the same time, he showed that he will not turn a blind eye. Moreover, this also shows that Putin is no longer feared as he once was," Fesenko concluded.

Plane crash in Kazakhstan

On December 25, a passenger plane Embraer 190 of Azerbaijan Airlines crashed near the city of Aktau, Kazakhstan. The flight was en route from Baku to Grozny.

There were 67 people on board, including the crew. The crash resulted in 38 fatalities.

According to media reports, drones were being shot down in Grozny that day, and the plane may have been hit, so it was unable to land. As a result, the Embraer 190 crashed near Aktau.

As reported by Euronews, Azerbaijani authorities confirmed that the crash was caused by a Russian missile.

Russian President Vladimir Putin apologized to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for the "tragic incident" involving the Azerbaijan Airlines plane but did not acknowledge that the aircraft was shot down by Russian forces.

More details about the crash can be found in the material by RBC-Ukraine.

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The Hill

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A report from the Senate Intelligence Committee offers a critical look at the CIA’s handling of cases of unexplained health incidents, determining its approach hindered its ability to care for staff and alienated employees.

The Friday report on anomalous health incidents (AHIs), previously referred to as “Havana syndrome,” found the CIA’s “evolving organizational position have greatly complicated CIA’s ability to consistently and transparently facilitate medical care, provide compensation and other benefits, and communicate clearly about AHIs to the workforce.”

The intelligence community has assessed that symptoms from vertigo to tinnitus to cognitive issues experienced by agents are likely due to other medical issues, environmental exposure and psycho-social factors — not a foreign adversary.

At the same time, the report notes numerous studies have found “clusters of symptoms and diagnoses that cannot be easily explained” among the nearly 100 CIA reporters.

The report’s findings complicate the position of CIA employees, whose access to treatment and compensation is in some ways tied to earlier beliefs that the symptoms could have been the result of an attack.

The report describes an environment of distrust within the agency, with employees saying they felt pressured to share their broader medical records, “and were resistant because they feared the agency would ‘weaponize’ their information or try to use the records to ‘discredit’ their AHI reports such as by ‘pinning’ their AHI experience on a minor pre-existing condition.”

The CIA said in a statement that it “continues to approach every reported possible AHI with the utmost seriousness and compassion.”

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The report also found that the CIA consistently challenged employees’ efforts to receive workers’ compensation, saying that as of the end of last year the agency had not concurred with various elements of employees’ applications to support their claim and had also not always turned over all documents needed.

“Collectively, this resulted in AHI reporters from CIA having lower approval rates for workers’ compensation claims than AHI reporters from other USG agencies–only 21% of CIA AHI applicants had been approved for workers’ compensation as of December 3 1, 2023, in contrast to 67% of AHI applicants from other USG agencies,” the report found.

Some AHI reporters said the inability to get workers’ compensation also prevented them from seeking disability benefits, prompting some to retire early or “cobble together various types of leave,” including leave without pay.

The report did credit the CIA with working more swiftly than some other agencies to adopt provisions of the HAVANA Act, including through its Expanded Care Program greenlighting the way to payments.

But it said CIA needs to do more, noting that it halted its own clinical research on AHIs, including pre- and post-AHI medical baseline testing.

“As a result, CIA may be missing out on important clinical data that could advance its understanding of AHIs,” the report stated.

It also said it needs to boost trust and communication with AHI reporters, many of whom they said have suffered “significant moral injury” and felt they were not believed, while others felt their career was impacted after discussing their AHI case.

The report also said that while reporting of such cases has dwindled, the agency needs to prepare for the potential of a surge in cases.

“CIA needs a sustained posture to address such incidents and to improve its medical tradecraft. CIA should be more organizationally prepared for the possibility that a large volume of AHI reports–or similar types of threats to the workforce–could arise in the future and overwhelm CIA’s capacity to respond on a case-by-case basis by, among other things, developing appropriate written policies and comprehensive plans for how it would respond to such threats,” it said.

For its part, the CIA said its commitment to its employees is “steadfast.”

“During the critical periods covered by this report, CIA had to design a response to a vexing problem as both our understanding of the problem and the problem itself evolved. … At the same time, CIA worked with the [intelligence community] to conduct a deep and rigorous investigation into the possibility that foreign actors were harming US Government personnel and their families, while also working tirelessly to assist officers and their families in getting the care and support they needed and rightly deserved,” an agency spokesperson said in a statement.

“In that environment, supporting our officers and their families required us to dynamically adapt our programs and processes to changing needs and circumstances. Whether, in hindsight, we could have done better is for others to evaluate, but our commitment to ensuring that our officers and their families had access to the care they needed has never wavered.”

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The Hill

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The only man to lead both the FBI and CIA spoke out against Kash Patel and Tulsi Gabbard, two of President-elect Trump’s top intelligence picks, saying both positions require “complete independence from political influence.”

William Webster, who led the agencies under both Democratic and Republican presidents, made the comment in a letter to senators, saying he was “deeply concerned” about both picks. 

Patel, who served in a number of national security roles under the Trump administration and who is a key ally to the president-elect, has been nominated to lead the FBI, even though current Director Christopher Wray would normally serve a 10-year term, until 2027. 

Gabbard, a former Democratic congresswoman from Hawaii, was nominated to serve as director of national intelligence, a role in which she would lead the office that coordinates all 18 intelligence agencies.

“While Mr. Patel’s intelligence and patriotism are commendable, his close political alignment with President Trump raises serious concerns about impartiality and integrity. Statements such as ‘He’s my intel guy’ and his record of executing the president’s directives suggest a loyalty to individuals rather than the rule of law—a dangerous precedent for an agency tasked with impartial enforcement of justice,” Webster wrote.

The letter was first reported by Politico.

Patel has been an outspoken critic of the FBI’s investigation into Trump — even penning a children’s book on the topic — and he has said he would fire a number of FBI personnel to rid the agency of the “deep state.” He also listed a number of Democratic figures as “government gangsters” in a book by the same name, writing in fundraising emails through his foundation that they must be held accountable.

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Gabbard, meanwhile, has come under fire for parroting Russian narratives about the country’s invasion of Ukraine and also visited now-deposed Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad as he was facing accusations of using chemical weapons against his own people.

“Congresswoman Gabbard’s profound lack of intelligence experience and the daunting task of overseeing 18 disparate intelligence agencies further highlight the need for seasoned leadership,” Webster wrote.

“Effective management of our intelligence community requires unparalleled expertise to navigate the complexities of global threats and to maintain the trust of allied nations. Without that trust, our ability to safeguard sensitive secrets and collaborate internationally is severely diminished. … This is no time in world history for a novice in the field to learn this role.”

The Trump team shot back at Webster.

“It shouldn’t be news that someone who has endorsed Joe Biden, who has been wrong on every single foreign policy disaster over the last four years, and Kamala Harris opposes President Trump’s nominees. Lt. Col. Gabbard is an active member of the Army and has served in the military for over two decades and in Congress, as someone who has consumed intelligence at the highest levels, including during wartime, she recognizes the importance of partnerships with allies to ensure close coordination to keep the American people safe,” Alexa Henning, a Trump transition spokesperson, said in a statement.

Alex Pfeiffer, also a Trump transition spokesperson, defended Patel as “loyal to the Constitution. He’s worked under Presidents Obama and Trump in key national security roles.”

Webster, who led the FBI under Presidents Carter and Reagan, shared that he was only contacted by each man once during their terms, nodding to concerns Trump would seek to play an outsize role in directing affairs at each agency.

He encouraged senators “to weigh the critical importance of nonpartisan leadership and experience.”

“Trust in our intelligence and law enforcement agencies is also crucial for our international partners,” he wrote. 

“Without that trust, we cannot be effective in guarding sensitive secrets or collaborating to address shared threats.”

Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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